October brings milder temperatures, orange leaves, and a brand-new chancellor delivering his first Autumn Budget.
As it’s the first major fiscal event of Andy Burnham’s government, uncertainty is high. This has encouraged a flurry of speculation about possible changes that may be announced on 28 October.
It can be hard to separate fact from fiction amid so much media noise. Here’s what we know so far.
What we know is happening
Burnham has confirmed that major policies from previous Budgets will go ahead. He has also made several policy announcements of his own ahead of 28 October.
- Pension Inheritance Tax rules are changing from April 2027
From April 2027, most unused pension funds and death benefits will be included in a person’s estate for Inheritance Tax (IHT) purposes.
Under current rules, pensions are exempt from IHT. However, Burnham has confirmed the government’s commitment to this policy, first outlined by then-chancellor Rachel Reeves in the 2024 Autumn Budget.
This rule could significantly increase your estate’s IHT liability. Make sure you are prepared by speaking with your financial planner.
- Cash ISA cap for under-65s
In the 2025 Autumn Budget, Rachel Reeves announced the reduction of the Cash ISA subscription limit from £20,000 to £12,000.
Your overall allowance remains at £20,000, with the additional £8,000 reserved for other types of ISAs such as Stocks and Shares or Innovative Finance.
This rule doesn’t impact those over the age of 65.
- Abolition of the State Pension triple lock from 2030
Burnham announced that the triple lock will be abolished in 2030 to free up funding for his National Care Service.
The triple lock system decides how much State Pension payments increase year-on-year, based on the highest of:
- CPI inflation
- Average earnings
- 2.5%
Burnham has announced that future State Pension payment increases will typically be based on prices and the 2.5% rate.
The only exception is in years when the cumulative increase in State Pension payments since the introduction of the new policy is lower than overall wage growth. In this case, the State Pension will increase enough to bring it in line with average earnings growth.
- Cuts to VAT on electricity
Early in his premiership, Burnham announced cuts to VAT on electricity to 0% to help with the rising cost of living. This policy came into effect on 1 October 2026 and is set to last until March 2027.
- Caps on bus fares
Burnham also announced a £2 cap on bus fares across England (outside of London) starting from 1 January 2027.
What is unlikely to be announced
Burnham has also ruled out certain announcements on 28 October.
- Rises in headline tax rates
Toeing the party line, Burnham has announced that the following taxes won’t be raised:
- Income Tax
- National Insurance contributions
- VAT
- Corporation Tax
These headline tax rates have been untouched since Labour took power in 2024.
- Abolishing Stamp Duty
In the past, Burnham has called for Stamp Duty to be abolished and replaced by a Land Value Tax (LVT).
An LVT would charge an annual levy based on the value of the land itself, rather than a one-off lump sum at the time of purchase. It would also replace Council Tax.
While many speculated that John Healey would announce the abolition of Stamp Duty in the upcoming Budget, Burnham has categorically denied this will happen in 2026.
Everything else is speculation
Beyond this, there are significant grey areas surrounding what could be announced on 28 October.
This vacuum has been filled with intense media noise, particularly regarding tax rises.
Burnham has announced a slew of policies that require significant funding, such as his council house programme, which the Telegraph reports is underfunded by £10 billion. Taxes may rise to close this funding gap.
As headlines compete to correctly guess what could be announced, remember that when engagement is a news outlet’s priority, its margin for error can be large. Likewise, just because a particular outlet has proven reliable in the past does not mean they will be correct this time round.
The most important thing is to stay calm and avoid a knee-jerk reaction
It’s easy to be stirred to action by alarmist headlines. But a knee-jerk reaction can leave you worse off.
This happened ahead of the 2024 Budget. According to Pensions Expert, rumours about a possible reduction to pension tax-free cash entitlement led to a record £10.4 billion being withdrawn in the six months to the end of March 2025.
For those who accessed their tax-free lump sum, the decision typically could not be reversed.
We now know that changes to the lump sum rules never happened. Many savers used their tax-free cash unnecessarily, potentially limiting their options for drawing a tax-efficient income in the future.
Remember: When you act based on media noise, you are reacting to opinion, not fact.
Usually, the best thing you can do is wait until policies are announced before making irreversible or costly decisions about your wealth.
Reach out to your Milsted Langdon financial planner if you’re concerned
It’s easy to listen to the news but hard to block out the noise.
The value in having a financial planner is that you receive an expert, objective opinion on the issues impacting your wealth, as and when you need it.
If you have any Budget worries, reach out.
Please get in touch or email us at advice@mlifa.co.uk for more information.
Please note
This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at individuals only.
All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.
Please do not act based on anything you might read in this article. All contents are based on our understanding of HMRC legislation, which is subject to change.
A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances. Thresholds, percentage rates, and tax legislation may change in subsequent Finance Acts.
The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.
The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate estate planning or tax planning.